Friday, May 14, 2010

NBA Free Agent Analysis

The NBA Salary Cap and contracts are really complicated, so this information may not be 100% accurate. From my understanding, the salary cap is around $60 million. You can go over the cap to resign someone who has been on your team for at least three uninterrupted years, and he could be offered a max contract. You can sign one free agent for about a $5 million deal or less at some point in the season. So all of these teams below can sign one free agent, but his total deal has to be less than $5 million.

Atlanta Hawks - Joe Johnson becomes free agent. Hawks can resign him at max. It would put them over the cap. They could only get another free agent at that mid level exception.

Boston Celtics - Nate Robinson and Ray Allen become free agents. Celtics can resign Ray at max. They can't resign Nate, unless its for the mid level exception. Pierce may or may not leave, if he does, they can resign him at max.

Charlotte Bobcats - Tyson Chandler may or may not leave, Charlotte cannot resign him for max, they are over the cap. Unless they move some players, they cannot sign a free agent for big money.

Chicago Bulls - Rose, Noah and Deng are locked up. They are $20 million under the cap. They can sign a big money free agent, then bring back their players they've had for 3 years. (Big possible LeBron or Wade destination)

Cleveland Cavs - We're over the cap, we lose Shaq and would not be able to resign him for anything more than the mid level exception. We lose Z and LeBron, and everyone else is set for another year or so. We can sign LeBron for more than any other team can offer. I think Dan Gilbert can say, what's the highest offer you have from anyone else and the Cavs can add $20 million to it if we want.

Dallas Mavericks - Way, way over the cap. Dirk may or may not go, if he does go they're still WAY over the cap. They can resign Dirk at max. They cannot sign a player other than for the MLE. They lose Brendan Haywood and cannot resign him at max.

Denver Nuggets - Another team way over the cap. They're going to lose Antonio McDyess and cannot resign him other than for the MLE. (which would be stupid) They cannot sign a big money guy.

Detroit Pistons - Detroit has locked up their current crappy team for several years now. They're JUST under the cap and probably can't bring in a big money guy. They're going to lose Ben Wallace and Michael Jordan's Kwame Brown. Neither guy can resign for other than the MLE.

Golden State Warriors - Under the cap, not going to lose any of their bigger players. Unless they make some moves, they cannot sign a big money guy.

Houston Rockets - Over the cap, Yao Ming may or may not stay. If he doesn't, they're under the cap and have the space to replace him. Or they can resign him for max.

Indiana Pacers - They're over the cap, and TJ Ford may or may not stay. It doesn't look like he can be resigned at max, since he's only been there two years.

LA Clippers - The Clippers have five players coming back and PLENTY of space to sign a big money guy. Then they may be able to resign their 3 year players at max. They're about $30 million under the cap. They could bring in two big money guys.

LA Lakers - WAY WAY WAY over the cap, but they have all of their important players locked up for the next five years. Look for more finals appearances and more titles to come for these assh*les. They cannot bring in any big money players, and the only guy they're losing is Derek Fisher, who can be resigned at max.

Memphis Grizzles - Under the cap, could bring in one big money guy. Rudy Gay may or may not leave, he can be resigned at max.

Miami Heat - They have five guys coming back, one of them is Dwyane Wade who can be resigned at max, then they have plenty of room left over to bring in another big money guy. They lose Jermaine O'Neal and cannot resign him unless its the MLE.

Milwaukee Bucks - Just under the cap, they may or may not lose Michael Redd. They can resign him at max.

Minnesota Timberwolves - Way under the cap, they could bring in two big money guys. They have all of their important guys coming back, and DARKO MILICIC'S CONTRACT IS FINALLY EXPIRED.

New Jersey Nets - WAY under the cap, two big money guys possible. They lose Bobby Simmons, Rafer Alston, Tony Battie, but thank god they keep the chairman of the NBA, Yi Jianlian. This team should get a big makeover.

New Orleans Hornets - Way over the cap, but they dont lose anybody. Cannot sign a big money player.

New York Knicks - Most cap space available of any team. I think they could actually bring in three big money guys. This could be LeBron, Wade, and Bosh. Jesus Christ. They're at $17 million. The cap is around $60 million. They're going to lose T-Mac and can't resign him. They can resign David Lee and Eddy Curry at max, after signing their big money free agents.

OKC Thunder - They are under the cap and are not losing anyone important. They have room to bring in about one big money guy.

Orlando Magic - Orlando is another team that has their guys locked up for the next few years. They wont lose anybody important and are way over the cap. No big money free agents joining the Magic any time soon.

Philadelphia 76ers - Over the cap, not losing anybody but Allen Iverson. They cannot resign him, and I think he retired for good anyways. They cannot bring in anyone expensive.

Phoenix Suns - Over the cap, and they may or may not lose Amare Stoudemire, Grant Hill and Channing Frye. They can resign Stoudemire and Hill for max, not Frye. They have no room for anyone else expensive.

Portland Trailblazers - They will lose Brandon Roye and can resign him for max. They're just under the cap, but resigning him would put them over.

Sacramento Kings - Under the cap, they could bring in a big money guy. They are not losing anyone important. Nor do they currently have anyone important on their team.

San Antonio Spurs - They're over the cap and have their important guys locked up. Can't bring in any more big names.

Toronto Raptors - They're over the cap, but if they lose Bosh that will give them some room. They can resign Bosh for max, but if he goes, they may or may not be able to replace him with a big money guy. They might not have quite enough cap room.

Utah Jazz - They're just under the cap. They're losing Carlos Boozer, but everyone else is locked up. They can resign Boozer at max, or maybe Boozer will tell them he's resigning with them, and then they'll find out later that day he's in Miami, actually signing a piece of paper.

Washington Wizards - Way under the cap. They have room to bring in two big money guys. They keep Gilbert Arenas and his guns, the Wizards have the option to keep Josh Howard. They're about $30 million under the cap.

So the teams that can bring in some big money free agents are:

Chicago, LA Clippers, Memphis, Miami, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, OKC, Sacramento, and Washington.

Any other team can't really do anything except resign the big money guy that's already been on their team for three years, or they would have to make some trades for draft picks to teams with cap space.

Chicago looks like they could be a beast next year. Rose, Deng, and Noah are on board, and they have room to add a superstar. But they also need a coach. Miami could be a serious contender again if Wade stays and they get him some help. And New York could be completely different. They can bring in several new players. Should be interesting to see what happens.


  1. J,

    Who is a key player for the Timberwolves?

  2. Kevin Love.. Al Jefferson.. Corey Brewer.. I suppose.

  3. they also have the 'rights' to Ricky Rubio...for whatever that's worth.

  4. That is true. Someone also reminded me that we have the rights to Christian Ayenga. Who I've never heard of, but was assured he's a beast.